The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. All Rights Reserved. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Watch Hampton City. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Just how big is it? Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Until this year. University of New Hampshire . The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. (The highest value being again 66.1%). With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. That's 14 in a row. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. . Twitter Twitter The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. 10. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. (subject to censorship). Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. In communities . The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". 8. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Seriously. But it's still indicative of widespread support. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. First, what are bellwether counties? If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Trump won 18 of the 19. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. University of Denver, 2. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Their concerns are real. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Jeff. Read about our approach to external linking. (Sorry, not sorry.) Have information that relates to fraud in this election? In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. What science tells us about the afterlife. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. ET. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. These counties could play an . In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Telegram Telegram Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. 108,000 people. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. So, where are the bellwether counties? Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. (Go to the bottom of the page. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real.
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